It took 12 stages, but the 2011 Tour de France finally enters the mountains on Thursday’s 211-kilometer stage through the Pyrenees. With 12 categorized climbs (seven of which are either Category 1 or Hors Categorie), the next three days are certain to produce several shake-ups as the sprinters and breakaway specialists give way to the men looking to become the overall winner of the 2011 Tour de France. Here are five questions we hope to have answered by the time the riders start their second rest day next Monday.
1. Which of the Schleck brothers will lead Leopard-Trek?
Aside from Andy losing a handful of seconds on the short, steep climb of the Mur de Bretagne at the end of Stage 4, the Schleck brothers (and their Leopard-Trek teammates) have ridden a more or less perfect race thus far. But with both men sitting firmly atop the GC and ready pounce in the high mountains, the question remains, which one will it be? At 31 years of age, older brother Frank is the more experienced of the two, but 26-year-old Andy—with two second-place Tour de France finishes on his resume—appears to be the more talented.
That said, neither rider set the world on fire prior to the Tour, leading to many to wonder if the brothers from Luxembourg have the form necessary to win the 2011 Tour de France. I suspect they both do, as evidenced by their current high placings and the ease with which they followed Alberto Contador’s surges on the climb to Super-Besse at the end of Stage 8. Relaxed, rested, and confident, I suspect we’ll see them take more of a conservative approach this weekend, as neither needs to attack at this point in the race. Then again, should one prove unable to follow the attacks of those looking to gain time, it will be up to the other to quickly fill the void, assuming the mantle of team leader and possibly leaving the other to fend for himself. Many are quietly wondering if Frank’s currently the stronger of the two. If so, will Andy be asked to play second fiddle in a race he has seemed destined to win? The Pyrenees could give us our first hint at an answer.
2. Does Alberto Contador have the form necessary to mount comeback?
While there were questions as to how Alberto Contador would fare in this year’s Tour de France, few of us expected the Spaniard to enter the Pyrenees more than 1:30 down on his major rivals. But after several days of bad luck and tough breaks, this is indeed the case. In fact, after yet another crash during Sunday’s Stage 9 left the three-time Tour champion licking his wounds, there were rumors that El Pistolero’s mid-race abandonment was imminent.
Luckily for Bjarne Riis and his Saxo Bank squad, Contador seems to have emerged from the Tour’s first rest day feeling refreshed and ready to launch a serious assault in the high mountains of the Pyrenees. Even better, his team is intact and has suffered from less of the bad luck its leader has—they are fresh and ready to support him this weekend. Look for Contador to go on the attack as early as Thursday’s Stage 12, a difficult day that tackles the Hourquette d’Ancizan and the Tourmalet before finishing atop the legendary Luz Ardiden. While Contador likely won’t go on the offensive as early as the Tourmalet, the day’s final climb will certainly offer him his first opportunity to claw his way back into contention—his ability to do so will go a long way toward determining the final outcome of this year’s Tour de France.
3. Are Cadel Evans and Ivan Basso legitimate challengers?
By Tour de France standards, Cadel Evans (34) and Ivan Basso (33) are over the hill. It sounds strange to say, but only three riders over the age of 33 have ever won the race, making the Australian and Italian long shots (age-wise) to stand atop the final podium in Paris. But despite his age, Evans has been arguably the most impressive GC contender so far, winning Stage 4 atop the Mur de Bretagne and losing no time whatsoever to his rivals—thanks largely in part to his BMC team’s stunning second-place ride in Stage 2’s team time trial. Heading into the Pyrenees, Evans also has the advantage of being able to cover attacks rather than launch them, as he’s the best-placed of the overall contenders. While men like Contador have to attack to make-up lost time, Evans can sit back and follow wheels, simply doing his best not to lose any ground—a position that should leave the Australian fresh and ready for the Tour’s final battle in the Alps.
As for Basso, while he has lost some time here and there, due largely to his Liquigas-Cannondale team’s inability to contend in Stage 2’s TTT, Basso has kept himself out of trouble during the Tour’s first eleven stages. As a result, the Italian comes to the Pyrenees just over a minute behind Evans and the Schlecks. While Basso (unlike Evans) will have to work to regain some of the time he lost, he’s still in a fantastic position relative to many others, as a minute is not an insurmountable gap over the course of several hard mountain stages. Should Basso find the climbing legs that won him last year’s Giro d’Italia, it’s easy to see the former top Tour-contender once again reaching the heights that saw Lance Armstrong pick him to be his successor at Team Discovery Channel.
Source: http://www.bicycling.com/tour-de-france/expert-analysis/5-questions-mountains
Joseph L. Braswell George K. Conner Vernon T. Showers Elaine A. Blizzard Tammy C. Israel Beth C. Mejia
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